FIVE YEAR PROJECTIONS
CATE compared BUSD boundaries to new home developments expected within the district within the next five years. We used the same formulations BUSD used, and came up with some very different numbers.
We estimate 115 additional high school students by 2021.
Even though it is not possible to make precise projections of enrollment numbers for a new high school, CATE had doubts about the accuracy of the numbers being quoted by BUSD. CATE has found that the number of students that BUSD can expect to enroll in the next five years are not as high as the district has projected.
CATE began by looking at current enrollments and adding in other factors.
The fall 2016-2017 high school enrollment was 222 students. There were 175 new inter-district transfers for the 2016-2017 school year.1
There were 210 eighth grade students enrolled for the current school year. Using the current transfer out rate of 44% only 118 would enroll in the ninth grade next year. This would increase the high school enrollment to 340 for the 2017-2018 school year.
Assuming that each class will increase by five students per year as it progresses through the four years of high school, the total enrollment would be 360 for the fall of 2018.2
This would project the total high school enrollment for the fall of 2020 to be 400 students.
The fall of 2021 would then be 420 students.
CATE research on new development shows 115 students would be added to the rolls. This would bring the total projected enrollment for the fall of 2021 to 535 students. This projection assumes that all 115 new students would attend the high school and there would be no transfers out for any grade in the high school over the five years.
1 Since transfer request are not required yearly, it is not known how many high school transfers occurred during the previous three years. The actual numbers since the fall 2015 are not in line with the assumption that each class will increase by five students. There has also been some declining enrollment in the BUSD elementary schools.
2 The report "School Facilities Needs Analysis" prepared for the district uses this assumption.